Ranking the Premier League relegation candidates by their likelihood of going down

The Premier League relegation battle this season has been unique, with two teams falling off very early in the campaign.

Bottom side Sheffield United (14 pts) and 19^th placed Burnley (17 pts) are three and two wins away from safety, respectively. With nine games left to be played, their relegation to the EFL Championship is all but certain.

However, Nottingham Forest in 18^th and the four teams above them are separated by just eight points. New boys Luton Town have impressed in parts but are yet to show the consistency it takes to become a Premier League regular.

Everton have been dealt tough hands with their points deduction but yet again find themselves flirting with the drop. Brentford are a surprise package and have underperformed drastically this season, mainly owing to injuries.

There a six-point gap between Bournemouth in 13^th and Palace below them, virtually rendering the Cherries safe from relegation altogether. Having said that, let’s take a detailed look at the main Premier League relegation candidates.

Premier League relegation: Likelihood of facing the drop

5. Brentford

Thomas Frank’s Brentford were promoted to the English top division in the 2021-22 season for the first time since the 1946-47 campaign. They did well in their first season, finishing a respectable 13^th with 46 points from 38 games. The following season, they climbed four places to finish 9^th in the final standings with 59 points.

Having almost breached the 60-point threshold last season, the Bees have remarkably struggled to make it to 30 this year. Ivan Toney’s eight-month absence through gambling suspensions also had a part to play, considering the forward has been the main goal threat for them.

However, with the overall quality the squad possesses and the tactical brain of Thomas Frank behind it all, it is unlikely Brentford will be relegated this season.

4. Crystal Palace

The Eagles have earned themselves a strange reputation over the last few seasons. They always seem to be struggling with form but are never really under grave threat of being relegated. Having finished 11^th with 45 points last year, Palace are 16 points off the mark currently after 28 games this year.

Multiple managerial changes coupled with injuries within the squad have derailed their momentum. However, the overall quality of the team and the way the club is run, Palace should survive this season under new manager Oliver Glasner and come back stronger next time around.

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3. Everton

If not for their six-point deduction earlier in the season, Everton would no longer be a part of this conversation at this point in the season. Sean Dyche’s men have done reasonably well to stay out of the relegation zone but will need to rack up wins in quick succession.

Having finished 16^th in 2021-22 and 17^th last year, the Toffees will hope they can avoid the drop for a third-straight year. They hold a unique record of never being relegated from the English top-flight and will look to preserve that.

2. Nottingham Forest

As we get to the business end of the Premier League relegation candidates, Forest are a team in just their second year in the league. Having been promoted at the start of last season, they did well to avoid relegation and finish 16^th with 38 points.

The club hierarchy has since spent nearly half a billion on a squad overhaul, without results reflecting on the pitch. Forest are also being investigated by authorities for breaching the league’s profit and sustainability laws and risk facing a four-point deduction.

With or without that, their chances of survival seem bleak, depending heavily on the next team on the list.

1. Luton Town

Rob Edwards’ men have put in some exciting performances this season and come close to recording some upsets. However, a lack of consistency in doing so sees them reeling in 17^th place with 22 points from 29 games, just one point above the drop zone.

The Hatters are yet to face giants Manchester City, Arsenal and Tottenham in the next three weeks, which could push them lower down the table. However, games against Bournemouth, Brentford and Everton could give them an opportunity to secure results against their fellow relegation teams.